Our analysts are here to share some of the quarterbacks to avoid this fantasy football draft season. And be sure to check out the full list of players to avoid as part of our 2022 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
Rankings noted using FantasyPro’s half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
5 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks to Avoid
Tom Brady (TB)
ECR QB8 | ADP-QB9
I’ve been expressing concern about Brady’s age for some time, which makes me look like the boy who cried wolf. Brady’s ADP and ECR suggest there is little public concern about an age-related decline, even though Brady is now in his mid-40s. The fact is, however, that the living legend is breaking new ground.
Brady was 44 years old last season. The only other quarterbacks to start at least one game during the Super Bowl era at age 44 are Steve DeBerg, Warren Moon, and Vinny Testaverde. Only Testaverde started more than once at that age, starting in six games for the Panthers in 2007. Brady turns 45 on Aug. 3. No NFL quarterback has started a game at age 45, and George Blanda is the only Super Bowl-era player to have attempted a pass at that age.
Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin tore his ACL in Week 15 and may not be ready for the start of the season. Gronk is retired.
Brady finished QB3 in fantasy scoring last year, but he also led the league by a wide margin in passing attempts. He threw 719 passes last season, eight fewer than the NFL-record 727 passes that Matthew Stafford attempted for the Lions in 2012. Brady threw 47 more passes than his closest rival in that category, Justin Herbert. Brady has been good in 2021, no question, but his fantasy exploits have been volume-driven.
You can continue to disregard the guidelines at your own risk. I’m just not willing to bet on a 45-year-old quarterback — even if he’s the GOAT.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Kyler Murray (ARI)
ECR QB5 | ADP-QB5
Kyler Murray played 14 games last year and was beaten in a few he played. He also suffered an injury in 2020 which he played through and which clearly kept him from his deep throws for a while. His smaller physique makes him a greater risk of injury. Murray’s Rush YPC fell from 6.2 to 4.8 and he will miss his alpha WR DeAndre Hopkins significantly, who will miss the first six games due to a PED suspension in 2022. If I want a rushing QB, I’ll call up Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, or Trey Lance late. Otherwise, I’d rather have “safe” guys like Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Burrow than Murray.
– Joe Pisapia
Aaron Rodgers (UK)
ECR QB12 | ADP-QB10
Davante Adams’ departure takes Aaron Rodgers out of the top 12 of fantasy quarterback conversation. For the past two seasons, Rodgers has finished as QB8 and QB4 due to the highest and fifth-highest passing touchdown rates of his career. Those touchdown rates were incredible not only by Rodgers’ standards, but also by the rest of the NFL. He has led the NFL in touchdown rate in consecutive seasons (at least 200 pass attempts).
Those high numbers are hard to repeat after losing arguably the best wide receiver in the league. Additionally, Rodgers will have a hard time compensating with raw volume for an offense that was last in the league in 2021 at neutral script pace. While Rodgers can still be productive with the guns around him, urging him to be more than a high-ending QB2 is arguably too much at this point.
– Derek Brown
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
ECR QB3 | ADP-QB2
Best Real Quarterback? Of course. The clear No. 2 option in fantasy? Not worth the entrance fee.
Patrick Mahomes ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0), tying Justin Herbert with 12 weekly top 12 QB finishes in 2021. Still, Mahomes averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 ( 25:2). And that was with Tyreek Hill in the herd.
Heading into 2022, Hill’s departure cannot be ignored. The duo have ranked second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 — though Mahomes didn’t become the starter until the 2018 season. There are real concerns about his weekly cap without Hill not factoring into his QB2 ADP and ECR rankings.
Especially after a season in which he posted a career-low PFF passing grade (77.5) and a career-high in interceptions (16). He’s overrated as a QB2 in early best-ball drafts for name recognition alone.
— Andrew Erickson
Russell Wilson (DEN)
ECR QB10 | ADP QB11
I understand why the consensus on Wilson is bigger than me: He’s now free of antiquated HC Pete Carroll, and the Broncos have a strong corps of passers in WRs Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler; TE’s Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich; and RBs Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. But Wilson has averaged just 22.8 yards per game for the past four years (since his season at age 30), so his fantasy ground isn’t exceptional, and he may not be cooking as much as expected given HC Nathaniel Hackett a top-12 oversaw in his eight years as offensive coordinator only once (2016 Jaguars) tackled on pass attempts.
– Matthew Freedman
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 rewrite of the fantasy football rankings
If you want to delve deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning list Fantasy football tools as you navigate through your season. Of our Start/sit assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus forecasts – to ours Waiver Wire Assistantthe allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.