One of my general rules when trading dynasties is to sell high and buy low. My last article was about a couple of players I was looking to sell, mainly because I felt they were near their value cap. This week I’m going to be looking at a few players that I’m trying to win that I think are near their bottoms and on the rise.
Davis Mills (QB – HOU)
Strange as it may sound, Mills could be the most frequent league winner in the Dynasty’s Superflex leagues this year. He’s on an offensive largely panned by the fantasy community, and is someone most fantasy execs haven’t spent much on before. Mills was a third-round rookie pick in most drafts entering the 2021 season. It’s rare for anyone to come out of this space and offer value, but Mills did.
He finished with 156.96 points as the QB29 overall and QB34 at 12.1 points per game. Not amazing, but good enough to get a second chance with the Texans for at least 2022. Given the roster around him, I’d like to have as much contact with Mills as possible at his current cost, somewhere around 2.08 in SF Rookie Drafts according to the DLF trade analyzers. Yes, please!
Jared Goff (QB – DET)
Like Mills, Goff is nowhere near a flashy name in the imagination right now. Most Dynasty executives hear the name and immediately puke in their mouths. But listen to me. Goff is the QB for the Lions for at least 2022 and possibly 2023. He finished 2021 as a QB24 overall and QB23 in points per game. That’s at least starter-worthy in Superflex leagues, as bad as it is to watch him play. The Lions added Jameson Williams and should see improvements from D’Andre Swift and TJ Hockenson, among others. Goff is a little cheaper than Mills, but he’s potentially a throw-in for a bigger trade in some leagues. Some managers are just done with him but I’m happy to take a risk with him this year if I’m able to win a title.
Aaron Jones (RB – UK)
It’s clear that AJ Dillon is the running back of the future at Green Bay, or at least that’s what we’re told. This means Jones is on his way out, leaving at a discount to other RBs in a similar space. FantasyPros Expert Consensus (ECR) Ranking has Jones at RB19 in Dynasty and Dillon at RB22. Dillon appears to be going up while Jones is going down, but I don’t think Jones is toasted yet. Now, with what we know about the Packers’ offense, I’d much rather have Jones than Dillon.
I think they’ll switch to their running backs early and often, which should benefit Jones more than Dillon. Last season, Jones saw 65 goals to Dillon’s 37, and Dillon outplayed Jones in two games. I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw Jones see even more goals this year with the departure of Devante Adams. He’ll be fired but I love Jones especially at his current 2022 value.
Chase Edmonds (RB – MIA)
Another pass catcher I’m better at than most is Miami’s new RB1 at Edmonds. The Dolphins struggled at RB last year, taking advantage of a revolving door of players they hated putting in their starting lineup. Edmonds has done well in Arizona and is now moving to a team that should see him lead an entirely new backfield of players acquired through free agencies. Edmonds will have to go head-to-head with former Rams RB Sony Michel and former 49ers RB Raheem Mostert, but I think he will assert himself as the RB to make the Week 3 fantasy roster. Backfields like this are usually the ones I avoid, but Edmonds is rated RB35 in FantasyPro’s ECR, making him too cheap to ignore. Even if he doesn’t show up, it’s unlikely he cost that much to ruin my team. That makes the risk easily worth the reward for me.
Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU)
Just like I mentioned for Mills, Cooks will go under the radar in many Dynasty leagues. He’s the clear WR1 of the Texans going into a second year of rebuilding. The 28-year-old Cooks has a long track record of scoring at least 13.8 PPR points per game in every but one season since 2014. In 2019, he played for the Rams and hit his career low in receptions and touchdowns. He went to Houston the next year and immediately became fantasy relevant again.
Now he is WR39 in the ECR dynasty rankings, but WR17 in the 2022 rankings. He’s a player who should bring you plenty of points this year, but if he’s in a rebuild squad they’ll likely get rid of him at or below his current WR39 price. I’m all about getting that discount on my team when I can get it, which is why he’s someone I’ll bring up in trade talks as we move through the summer.
Adam Thielen (WR – MIN)
You might notice a theme for my wide receiver goals: you’re on the older side. At 31, Thielen is even older than Cooks and has been just as consistent in his time in the league. Thielen has played his entire career for the Vikings, who drafted Justin Jefferson to replace Stefon Diggs in 2020 after he was traded. Thielen and Diggs have been a pretty dominant fantasy duo, and Theilen and Jefferson have been just as dominant for the past two seasons.
Thielen has averaged 16.9 PPR points per game in 15 games in 2020 and 15.4 PPR points per game in 13 games in 2021. This type of production is hard to find where Thielen is classified ECR WR56 in Dynasty. I’m happy to take on an aging vet who scores 15 points a game if it helps me win a title. Don’t let the shiny new toys distract you from the more boring ones at the bottom of the toy box. It doesn’t matter where the points come from as long as you have more than your opponent am I right?
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)
Kmet is interesting for me. Part of my brain says we haven’t even seen the tip of the iceberg on him, or the bears’ offensive in general. Justin Fields should make a significant step up this year with a new offense and I think that helps Kmet a lot. On the other hand, we haven’t seen enough of Kmet to know if he can be counted on to be a true TE1 in fantasy. He’s young, just 23, heading into the 2022 season, and tight ends tend to take longer to adjust to the pro game.
But again, is he the real deal? No one really knows, which is why he is prized throughout the dynasty. He’s rated TE12 according to ECR, which might be his upper limit, but if you can get him in the TE16-20 range, he could be a league winner, especially in TE premium leagues. If you can add Kmet to your squad at the right cost, I’m a huge fan, but I don’t recommend overpaying if the other manager likes their perks more than you do.
Hayden Hurst (TE – CIN)
Hurst is more my style when it comes to how I approach players. At just 28, he’s entering his fifth year for his third team. However, Hurst wasn’t exactly fantasy relevant throughout its four seasons. His best year was his first for Atlanta, where he averaged 9.3 PPR points per game in 16 games. The Falcons used him well, but then they drafted Kyle Pitts as their tight end of the future in 2021, and Hurst was knocked down on the depth chart.
Now he’s on the Bengals’ high-octane offense, but as a fourth or fifth pass option, depending on what you think of Joe Mixon. He might not see a lot of targets, but he could line up for a lot of touchdown chances. His dynasty ECR is TE30 which makes him almost free in many leagues. Its low risk and top 20 TE opportunities make it my favorite trading target on this list. You might even find him on waivers in shallower leagues.
Andrew Hall is a featured writer for FantasyPros. To find out more about Andrew, check out his profile and follow him @AndrewHallFF.