Any reason to doubt Jalen Hurts?

Fantasy football analyst Matt Harmon reveals the highlights of his positional predictions for the 2022 season. First, here are the quarterback projections that caught his eye.

It will be impossible not to like Jalen Hurts

when you fade away Jalen hurts This year you have to expect him to be benched at some point. I would argue that there is next to no evidence that any tangible risk is occurring at all. There is no other logical reason to bet on hurts with your QB8 ADP.

Hurts had a 25.2 percent rushing percentage on the Eagles’ offense in 15 games last year. I have him at 28% for a full season in 2022. With the Eagles all too likely in the top 10 most run-heavy offenses in the NFL, Hurts should go past 700 yards on the ground. If he even remotely maintains his career rushing touchdown rate (6%), he can easily score six to eight points.

Hurts should also see an increase in his passing efficiency. Take Jalen Reagors Goals and delivery to them AJ Brown in a projection model is massive.

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Brown has averaged 14.6 yards per catch with a 7.6% touchdown rate over the past two years. It’s also not like he played with an elite quarterback. Some of that efficiency has to flow into Hurts’ passing numbers, and that’s on top of the efforts of two strong holdovers De Vonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.

If you’re missing the Tier 1 quarterbacks in the fantasy, nothing should stop you from considering Hurts as a weekly response with a combination of high ceilings and stable ground.

Brian Daboll should be a big boost for Daniel Jones

All players at the Giants skill positions are going from the outhouse to the penthouse in terms of offensive design and play-calling.

Leaving behind the Joe Judge/Jason Garrett brain trust and joining a unit with Brian Daboll and former Chief’s assistant Mike Kafka is one such win. My projections weigh heavily on the past three years of data at the former team level for new head coaches and offense coordinators.

So the Giants are being infused with a mix of pace and play-calling data from 2019-2021 from the Bills and Chiefs. Not bad.

That’s why I love the offensive structure of the Giants. New York ranks 10th in the NFL in plays run and sixth in pass attempts. Take Daniel Jones’ Passing stats and projecting them into this type of offense combined with his average 4.5 charge attempts per game career makes him look like a fantasy star.

Quarterback Daniel Jones #8 of the New York Giants is a fantasy question mark

Will the Giants’ new coaching staff transform Daniel Jones into a fantasy star? (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Of course, raw forecasts don’t always account for volatility, and we know Jones is a volatile player. The team has not taken up its fifth-year option and reports from the off-season have been shaky so far. There’s a chance he won’t even start 17 games, and even if he does, he might not be playing well enough to push this offense to its theoretical limit.

As much as fantasy execs seem to like the Giants’ offense to mine underhanded fantasy value, there’s still a chance Jones could sink the entire operation.

So while projection models like Jones, rankings should reflect some of that low ground along with the solid fantasy ceiling. I set it up in QB17.

Trevor Lawrence hits a real jackpot

The 2021 Jacksonville Jaguars were a shady operation. you can give Trevor Lawrence a pass for his performance while acting in this clown show.

Doug Pederson may not be a young, offensive upstart, but outlining his Eagles’ offense would be a huge boost for Lawrence. The Eagles ranked eighth in passing play percentage in 2020, 20th in 2019, and seventh in 2018. They finished sixth, first, and ninth in games per game over the same period.

So we can assume that the Jaguars play fast and are a pass-oriented offensive. My predictions have them top 10 in pass attempts and plays.

As long as the supporting cast tightens around Lawrence and he displays the same skills he displayed in last year’s film, the Jaguars’ offense could be good ground to add to the fantasy value. Lawrence also had an 18.6% share of his team’s rush attempts as a rookie, which only adds to his fantastic QB1 sleeper appeal.

I don’t know how to project the Patriots with Mac Jones

When you lean heavily on play-calling data for the last three years, it becomes difficult to love the Patriots’ passing game. New England played slower than that Tom Brady years and quite busy in the last two seasons.

How much of it was because they played with it Cam Newton in 2020 and a rookie passer in 2021?

Forecasts help establish a baseline and lead you to a “most likely” outcome. In that model, I’ve only ranked the Patriots 25th in pass attempts this year. I am open to the fact that this is wrong and actually imagine the positive case MacJones and this passing game.

There’s a chance Jones — who doesn’t get enough credit for a rock-solid rookie campaign — will focus more on the quarterback’s accurate, passing point-guard model in Year 2. The Patriots lack stars in the pass catcher but suddenly have a deep and diverse set of receivers and tight ends. Jones could serve as a Philip Rivers/Drew Brees-style distributor if the Patriots return to the model they played under Brady prior to 2019.

I want to be open to that possibility because I think Jones is good and those pass catchers are going so late for the volume they can hold.

We know Bill Belichick was a chameleon coach because of his staff, and this roster looks like it has the kind of players that lend themselves to both attacking styles. Couple that with the fact that we don’t really know who the best offensive coach is (and our options are either Joe Judge or Matt Patricia), and this is an offense where projections just can’t bake on top of the unknown.

Kirk Cousins ​​might be underrated

There is the possibility that Kirk cousins Throw for 5,000 yards this season with the way the Vikings will call games.

Minnesota has averaged 24th in passing play percentage (54.8%) over the past three seasons. I got them for the 15th most pass attempts in the NFL this season based on new head coach Kevin O’Connell and offensive coordinator Wes Phillips’ history with the Rams. These teams were closer to a 59% pass rate and worked faster.

Cousins ​​isn’t a star, but he’s always been an efficient passer, clearing 8.0 adjusted yards per attempt in each of his last three seasons. He even has a nearly 5k season on his resume, reaching 4,917 yards with Washington in 2016.

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When we’re all on board Justin Jefferson As a top 2 fantasy receiver this season, this offensive shift should make us pretty excited to see the guy throw the ball to him.

I won’t rank Cousins ​​as QB1 because he doesn’t rush to the top. But once I miss that stage or need a QB2 in Superflex, Cousins ​​will be a prime target. Spike weeks will be there.

Carson Wentz will have to be Yes, really bad to mess that up

Ron Rivera definitely comes across as a hard-nosed, old-school coach, but his offensive coordinator is a pretty progressive play-caller. Scott Turner took over for his father under Rivera in Carolina and has made quick attacks that throw the ball at a decent clip.

Washington has finished 17th and ninth in games over the past two years, and Carolina was sixth in 2019. These teams have an average rushing play rate of just 39%. Turner’s slowest and busiest year was last season, and you can attribute most of that to playing with an inferior passer.

The way Turner calls plays is exactly what we want in a fantasy-friendly offense. Especially one with a potential WR1 in it Terry McLaurin and other intriguing names. Washington didn’t exactly make a massive upgrade in the offseason, though Carson Wentz is still better than what they introduced in 2021. He must be really bad to screw this up for his pass catchers.

Pace is a problem for Aaron Rodgers

The Packers traded away the best receiver in football this offseason and failed to add a proven player to the position. But that’s not the biggest problem for Aaron Rodgers this season.

The Packers have finished 18th, 24th and 19th for the last three seasons under Matt LaFleur. They were one of the rare teams to fall below 1,000 in Rodgers’ 2020 MVP season. They’ve also finished 14th and 11th in run play percentage over the past two seasons. Some of that is compounded by how many times they’ve won, but that shouldn’t change until 2022.

Green Bay has already been slightly conservative since the arrival of LaFleur. There’s a chance they could go even further in that direction this season. They have invested in their defense and could have a top 10 unit. The top two players on offense are after Rodgers Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. It makes all the sense in the world to show them off.

Receiver is not a premium position in Green Bay and overall passing volume could trend down. Rodgers has to be hyper efficient to pull off stats like he’s been doing for the past two years. Of course he can because he’s Rodgers but all of that is why he will move towards the bottom of the QB1 rankings this year.

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