Is TJ Hockenson Overrated For 2022?

TJ Hockenson has been a prolific player over the last two seasons, but is he being overrated as a fantasy tight end this year?

In 2020, Lions tight end TJ Hockenson was a top five fantasy tight end across the board. Last year he was top-10 in fantasy points per game in full and half PPR and just outside of it in standard scoring.

Points per game are of course the constraint for 2021. Hockenson missed the last five games after undergoing thumb surgery. Otherwise, he would have usurped 2020 with 61 catches and 583 yards in the 12 games he played and set clear career bests in those categories.

Fantasy Pros gathered some experts to list 14 overrated players for 2022 based on the current consensus ranking on their website. Hockenson, with a consensus ranking of TE6, was named the most overrated tight end by Fantasy Pros’ Derek Brown and The Game Day’s Frank Ammirante.

Brown: At TE6, TJ Hockenson is grossly overrated. He has accumulated TE7 Fantasy Points per game finish in consecutive seasons. With the additions of DJ Chark
and Jameson Williams, the continued presence of Amon-Ra St. Brown and a workhorse for D’Andre Swift, Hockenson will struggle to pay off that high placement.”

Ammirante: “TJ Hockenson’s rank is a bit too high at TE6. The Lions have signed DJ Chark and drafted Jameson Williams, adding more options to a passing game that already includes Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. Detroit are looking to maintain their run-heavy style they showed towards the end of last season, which will cap Hockenson’s upward trend this year.”

Fantasy Football: Is TJ Hockenson Really Overrated For 2022?

Hockenson and Swift were Jared Goff’s most reliable targets for much of last season before St. Brown showed up late in the season when both were either out or seeing limited work. With all three staying healthy all season, three prominent and capable players are in line for a solid chunk of the target stake. And that leaves out Char and Williams eventually getting well.

In a way, RotoWire has a pretty aggressive-looking 2022 forecast for Hockenson — 74 receptions (112 goals) for 781 yards and six touchdowns. Fantasy Football Calculator has him at TE6 and a fifth round in 12-team leagues from ADP at full and half PPR and TE12 (10.06 pick) in standard scoring.

Hockenson will be one of the first 5-10 tight ends off the board in most fantasy drafts. If it falls a little further, it becomes a potential value. His cap is limited when the Lions’ key players are all healthy, but there’s reliable ground no matter what. In the tight end position, where reliable options are quickly thinning out, this floor has value.

There’s something about the idea that Hockenson’s current fantasy ADP/Consensus ranking is a little too optimistic. But it’s a stretch to put him in a most overrated category when a top 10-12 (TE1) finish for the season is absolutely in play.

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