Premier League final day: What’s still at stake? | football news

The Final Day decision-makers at a glance

Master: Title chasers Man City and Liverpool start the final day separated by a single point.

Third place: Chelsea still need a point to mathematically secure third place, although Tottenham would need an unprecedented goal difference to overtake Thomas Tuchel’s side.

Champions League qualification: Tottenham effectively need just one point at Norwich to be sure of finishing fourth. Barring another unlikely swipe on goal difference, the only way Arsenal can leap forward is if they beat Everton and lose Tottenham at Norwich.

European League: Either Arsenal or Tottenham will be joined by Manchester United or West Ham in the Europa League – Man Utd currently lead the Hammers by two points but David Moyes’ side have a much better goal difference.

Europa League Conference: If Manchester United lose or draw and West Ham beat Brighton on the last day at the Palace, Man Utd will play in the Europa League Conference next season.

Descent: One from Burnley and Leeds will be relegated alongside Norwich and Watford. Although Burnley and Leeds will start the final day level on points, Leeds’ far smaller goal difference means they need to improve on Burnley’s result to stay ahead. Burnley are sure to survive if they win or if Leeds lose.

Golden Shoe: Mo Salah currently leads the scorers list (22) with a single goal from Heung-Min Son. Cristiano Ronaldo is four behind from Salah.

Golden Glove: Alisson and Ederson currently have 20 clean sheets each this season.

Premier League final day fixtures

Arsenal vs Everton
Brentford vs Leeds United – Live on Sky Sports
Brighton vs West Ham
Burnley versus Newcastle
Chelsea vs Watford
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United
Leicester vs Southampton
Liverpool vs Wolves – Live on Sky Sports
Manchester City vs Aston Villa – Live on Sky Sports
Norwich vs Tottenham

Possible fluctuations in the last day

Data guru Ben Mayhew has calculated the range of possible final places for each club and found that in addition to the three key battles in the title race, the top four and the relegation battle, another six clubs are battling for a first-half finish.

Mayhew has also simulated every possible outcome from the remaining games and calculated the probabilities for each club’s possible finishing positions.

The results suggest so Manchester City have a 79 per cent chance of keeping their Premier League crown and going Liverpool with a probability of 21 per chance to cause a seismic disturbance.

The predictions back Tottenham to hold their fourth place at 91 percent and arsenal at a meager nine percent while leeds 78 percent favorites face relegation – with Burnley still seriously endangered at 22 percent.

Club by club: Where could each club end up?

Manchester City

Victory over Aston Villa will guarantee City to end the season as champions. Due to their superior goal difference over Liverpool, City will only drop to second place if they lose or draw against Villa and Liverpool beat Wolves. A draw for Liverpool and a loss for City will not be enough unless Villa win by at least six goals.


As mentioned above, Liverpool need to improve on City’s final day result to be crowned champions. If City wins, Liverpool will be second. Both City vs Aston Villa and Liverpool vs Wolves will be broadcast live on Sky Sports.


Three points clear of Tottenham, Chelsea are also so superior on goal difference that they are all but certain of third place. At least Chelsea – like last season – finished fourth and qualified for the Champions League.


Tottenham could still finish third, fourth or fifth. In all likelihood third place is out of reach and a draw at Norwich should be enough to secure fourth place.


After failing to qualify for Europe last year, Arsenal are certain to finish in the top five this season and qualify for the Europa League. They only qualify for the Champions League if they beat Everton and lose Tottenham at Norwich – the goal difference gap means it’s impossible for Arsenal to finish above Tottenham if Spurs draw at Norwich.

Manchester United

Already doomed to end the season with the lowest points in Premier League history, United will fall to seventh on the final day – and the Europa League Conference – if they lose or draw at Palace and West Ham wins at Brighton.

west ham

As mentioned above, the Hammers, who start the day two points behind Manchester United, need a win at Brighton to have any hope of a sixth-place finish from last season. Wolves are five points behind West Ham so David Moyes’ side are sure to finish in the top seven.


While Wolves will definitely improve on last year’s 13th place finish, they can’t finish higher than their current position in eighth and could fall to 10th if the results – a defeat at Liverpool coupled with victories for Brighton and Leicester – compete against them on the final day.


There is plenty to play for on the finals day for Brighton: they could finish the season in 12th place, while a home win over West Ham could put them in eighth place. But Brighton are sure to finish well above last year’s 16th place and previous 15th place in the Premier League.


In their first season in the Premier League, Brentford could still finish in the top half – although ninth place is only achievable with a final-day win against Leeds, live on Sky Sports and defeats for Brighton and Wolves. Conversely, Brentford could also be just 14th, while Newcastle are currently tied on points with both Palace and Villa just a point behind.


With the midfield so strained, Newcastle have a potential six-place position change to play for on the final day – they could finish up to ninth place with a win at Burnley and results elsewhere are going their way while a Loss, or even a tie, could see them drop to 14th place.

crystal palace

As the finals day begins on the 13th, Palace can finish no lower than 14th, while the advantage on goal difference over their M23 rivals means it’s still possible for them to finish 10th ahead of Brighton – although that result does too contingent on neither Newcastle nor Brentford winning as Palace beat Manchester United and Brighton lose to West Ham.


Villa is one of seven teams to finish tenth. But as they start the finals day 14th, their goal difference, not to mention their opponent in the form of title chasers Manchester City, means the prospect of a tumble down the table is slim. They are confident of finishing no lower than 14th, however, as 15th-placed Southampton are five points behind.


Tuesday’s defeat by Liverpool has already confirmed that Southampton, five points behind Villa, will not be able to improve on last year’s 15th place – where they currently sit this season and are guaranteed to stay if Everton at Arsenal loses.


After ensuring survival in the Premier League with a dramatic win over Palace, Everton have little left to offer on the final day. To finish above Southampton they need to improve on the Saints’ result on Sunday – but even then their last league position will pale next to last year’s tenth place.


And then there were two. Burnley are battling for 17th place and the Premier League and will start the final day just above the relegation zone on goal difference, but their record is so superior to Leeds that the Clarets are virtually certain to stay if they beat at home Win Newcastle. Likewise, a draw is enough as long as Leeds don’t win in Brentford.


One certainty on the finals day is that if Leeds lose at Brentford they will be relegated. A draw will only be enough to secure 17th place if Burnley loses and even a win – apart from a 20 goal difference – won’t be enough if Burnley also wins.


Two years after being relegated from the Premier League as second from bottom, Watford’s relegation from the Premier League this season has already been confirmed and they will start the final day again from second from bottom.


And another case of déjà vu: two years after Norwich were relegated from the Premier League having hit rock bottom, Norwich’s relegation from the Premier League this season has already been confirmed and they will start the final day, yes you have guessed it, hit rock bottom again. They’ve already picked up at least one point more than in 2019/20 and one incentive for the Canaries on Sunday is a chance to finish above Watford – which they will do if they beat Tottenham at home and the Hornets don’t pick up three points at Chelsea.

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