Shower Narration: Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase (2022 Fantasy Football)

Last season, we saw former college teammates Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, as well as Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle, find instant success in their first seasons together in the NFL. “Shower narrative” is a phrase popularized by Adam Levitan to suggest that college teammates, particularly QB-WR Batteries, who had success in college are likely to have similar success at the NFL level.

The Bengals and Dolphins drafted all four of the above players, but the Raiders and Cardinals looked to the trade market this offseason for similar connections. Las Vegas acquired WR Davante Adams to pair with former Fresno State teammate Derek Carr, while Arizona traded for WR Marquise Brown to catch passes from former Oklahoma teammate Kyler Murray.

Let’s take a look at the best NFL shower stories and assess how their fantasy impact could be this season. Next in this series: Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase.

Fantasy Football Re-Draft Draft Kit

Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) and Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)

Joe Burrow projections

STOCK CMP PASS ATT PASS YDS PASS TDS PASS INTS RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS FUMBLE POINTS
375.7 560.7 4368.1 30.2 14 46.9 159.8 2.4 2.3 307.6

Joe Burrow finished the regular season as the PFF’s top-rated passer (91.2), while also ranking first in super sticky stats like passing the grade from a clean pocket (94.6) and passing the grade on an intermediate throw (95, 6). He finished the season as a QB8, averaging just north of 20.5 fantasy points per game.

The Bengals quarterback has undoubtedly been the talk of the town as one of the best true NFL passers in the league, but could be slightly overrated given early best-ball ADP and the regression to come. He’s the QB6, despite only finishing as a top-six fantasy quarterback three times in 2021.

No quarterback scored more fantasy points than expected, suggesting the regression will hit Burrow in 2022. The LSU product also rushed just 118 yards and two TDs. He rushed for fewer yards than Mac Jones, who is notorious for being ranked low by consensus due to his lack of advantage as a rusher.

However, there is a legitimate avenue for Burrows’ upside potential to continue to be unleashed if the Bengals increase their pass rate like they did during his rookie season and in the playoff stretch. Burrow led the NFL in passing attempts per game (40.4) in his rookie season and averaged 38 passing attempts/23.0 fantasy points per game over his last six weeks

An increase in pass volume won’t help Burrow’s efficiency per se, but his fantasy numbers will be much more stable week-to-week.

Also, let’s not forget to mention that the Bengals have revised their offensive line as they try not to have their franchise quarterback fired 70 times — 22 more than the next best quarterback.
β€” Andrew Erickson

Ja’Marr Chase projections

RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS RECS REC YDS REC TDS FUMBLE POINTS
12.3 60.5 0.3 88.2 1374.7 9.8 0.9 202.3

Ja’Marr Chase broke Justin Jefferson’s record for most yards by a rookie to finish 2021 as a WR5 in fantasy points per game and a WR22 in expected fantasy points per game. Only Deebo Samuel scored more fantasy points than expected (+74.3) than Chase – a testament to his home run smashing ability. Chase’s 18.0 yards per reception ranked second only to Samuel in the NFL.

The Bengals wide receiver dominance continued into the postseason with back-to-back 100-yard games in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Chase had a 27% target percentage when it mattered most during the postseason, a 5% increase over his regular season target percentage.
– Andrew Erickson

Consensus Ranking of Fantasy Football Staff 2022

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