The best bets on today’s MLB schedule

Top picks for today's MLB schedule

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Every day throughout the season we’ll give you betting advice on a National League and American League game and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, over under bets or money line bets on other games.

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National League best bet

St Louis Cardinals +100 at Milwaukee Brewers -110

8:10 p.m. ET

This is the third series between these NL Central division rivals, who are tied for division leadership with identical 39-31 records.

This is the third game of a four-game series and the teams split the first two games, with the Brewers winning 2-0 and the Cardinals 6-2 on Tuesday night.

The Brewers’ troubles begin at the plate with an almost obsession with the starting angle and swinging for home runs, regardless of the number or situation.

The Brewers rank 24th with a .232 batting average but fourth with 1.29 home runs per game.

The Cardinals rank fourth with a .254 batting average and 16th with 1.04 home runs per game.

Not only do the Cardinals have the better and more efficient offense, but they also have the better pitcher, playing in veteran Adam Wainwright tonight, who is 5-5 in 13 starts with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.235 WHIP in 79 1/3 innings .

Seven of his last eight starts have been quality starts, defined by going six or more innings and allowing three or fewer earned runs.

He’s also 20-6 and made 14 units on the moneyline in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs over the past two seasons.

I’ll be backing the cardinals on the money line tonight.

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American League Best Bet

Cleveland Guardians +140 with Minnesota Twins -150 and eight runs total

7:40 p.m. ET

Here are the situational trends and perspectives that support an over bet in this game:

  • The Guardians are 25-10 when facing an AL pitcher with an ERA of 3.40 or less in the last two seasons.
  • The Twins are 42-22 over after back-to-back games without error in the last two seasons.
  • The Twins are down 43-18 after losing three of their last four games in the last two seasons.
  • Rocco Baldelli is 21-8 down after a loss to a division rival who is considered a -150 or greater favorite to manage the Twins.

The betting angle on this game

  1. Betting on the over with any team totaling 8 or 8.5 runs.
  2. The team bats no better than .260.
  3. The team starts a pitcher with an ERA of 2.00 or lower in their last three starts.
  4. The team faces an AL opponent who starts a pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or less.
  5. These situational bets have set a record of 115-59, good for 66% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and a 23-9 for 72% winning bets over the last three seasons.

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Fast pitches

These are some other bets to consider for today’s schedule.

  1. Take Pirates’ Keegan Thompson to allow 5.5+ hits at +118 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
  2. Take Red Sox Third Baseman Rafael Devers Over 1.5 bases overall at +115 at BetMGM.
  3. Take Tampa Bay’s Isaac Paredes to score two or more hits at +410 on FanDuel.
  4. Take Dansby Swanson + from the Braves to hit a home run at 420 at Fan Duel.
  5. Take Triston McKenzie from the Guardians. Over 3.5 runs earned allows T +110 at DraftKings.

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