Ahead of the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will be releasing a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the NFL National Football Leaguewhich covers the schedule, predictions, total wins over/under selections and prop bets for each team. Today we will cover the Washington Commanders. Be sure to check out our preview of the Pittsburgh Steelers released yesterday.
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Washington Commanders (66/1 to win Super Bowl, BetMGM)
Record 2021: 7-10 (3rd in NFC East)
Ron Rivera returns for his third season with Washington, who made a splash this offseason by taking over QB Carson Wentz from the Indianapolis Colts.
Rivera will hope Wentz is a crucial factor for Washington, who proved to be a very up-and-down team last season. After a 2-2 start, they lost five out of six before winning four in a row to finish the season 4-1. Washington will start without edge rusher Chase Young, who is still recovering from a cruciate ligament rupture he sustained in Week 10 of last season.
Rivera also needs to improve his team’s pass defense. Last season, Washington ranked 28th in the Pass DVOA while ranking seventh in the Rush DVOA, according to footballoutsiders.com. The latter ranking is largely based on games with Young, however, as Washington struggled against the run without Ohio State’s product on the field.
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Move Commanders off-season: Draft, Trades, Free Agent Signings, Injury Report
- Acquired QB Carson Wentz + draft pick from Indianapolis Colts for three draft picks
- Drafted Penn State WR Jahan Dotson (No. 16), Alabama DT Phidarian Mathis (No. 45), Alabama RB Brian Robinson Jr. (No. 98), Louisiana-Lafayette S Percy Butler (No. 113), North Carolina QB Sam Howell (No. 144), Nevada TE Cole Turner (No. 149), Tulsa G. Chris Paul (No. 230), Oklahoma State CB Christian Holmes (No. 240)
- Signed WR Alex Erickson, G Trai Turner, CBs DeVante Cross, Josh Drayden and Devin Taylor and TEs Curtis Hodges & Armani Rogers.
Commanders 2022 schedule
Week 1: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 2: at the Detroit Lions
Week 3: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Week 4: at the Dallas Cowboys
Week 5: against the Tennessee Titans
Week 6: at the Chicago Bears
Week 7: vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 8: at the Indianapolis Colts
Week 9: vs Minnesota Vikings
Week 10: at the Philadelphia Eagles
Week 11: at Houston Texans
Week 12: vs. Atlanta Falcons
Week 13: at the New York Giants
Week 14: Bye
Week 15: vs. New York Giants
Week 16: with the San Francisco 49ers
Week 17: vs. Cleveland Browns
Week 18: vs. Dallas Cowboys
NFL Betting Lines: Commanders Win Total O/U
This profit amount is far below, which has a price of -170 at this point in time. For those bettors interested in the over, you can get a whopping +145.
However, I’m a little surprised at how confident the bookies are that the Commanders won’t be able to win that much. Based on my fellow Action Team Sean Koerner’s good schedule predictions, the Commanders go into the 2022-23 season with the third-easiest schedule in the NFL.
Also, most of their tripwire matches take place at home—Week 7 vs. Green Bay, Week 9 vs. Minnesota, and Week 18 vs. Dallas. As for their road plan, I believe the rest aside from San Francisco and Dallas are winnable games that will post single digit spreads (in full health).
The addition of Wentz, who ranked 16th among all quarterbacks in last year’s DVOA, should bolster an offense from Washington, who ranked 21st in Team DVOA last season, according to footballoutsiders.com. If that’s the case, Commanders will no doubt like the look of a schedule that includes eight games against teams that ranked in the bottom half of the Team Defensive DVOA last season.
Also, I further question the price here based on the results so far for the commanders. In the last two seasons under Rivera, the Commanders have won seven games.
With a competent quarterback and a weak schedule, can they go up by two wins?
Absolutely. Despite his weaknesses, Wentz should help balance this offensive attack and push commanders to surpass that win total.
Although DE Chase Young will likely miss the first part of the season, I won’t overreact to this absence. Last season, Washington went 4-4 in games without Ohio State’s edge rusher.
For all of these reasons, take the over on Washington’s total win up to +115.
Commanders O/U 8.5 wins: The Election
Over 8.5 wins (+145)
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Carson Wentz on 21.5 passing TDs (-112, fan duel)
I expect commanders will make him the focus of their offensive once Wentz is taken over. That belief should lead Wentz to exceed his 21.5 touchdown assist for the season.
Beyond this over-simplified theory, there are supporting statistics that further indicate Wentz cleared this benchmark. First, Washington has proved mediocre under Rivera to establish the run. Last season they placed 19th in Rushing DVOA. The season before, they finished 14th according to footballoutsiders.com.
Additionally, both Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic have established themselves as reliable receivers from outside the backfield. Last season, of the 57 running backs who received at least 25 passes, both ranked 25th or better in defense-adjusted yards over the reserve.
Washington actively seeks to use their back in a passing game and the ball will be in Wentz’ hands most of the time, especially near the red zone.
After all, for all his perceived shortcomings, Wentz has vacated that number in two of his last three seasons. Based on these trends lock this market down to -125.